![]() "It's a scorched earth policy, and the Russians believe in scorched earth policies, they do it everywhere else in the world that they've operated.Dan speaks to author Sebastian Faulks about the impact of war. "This is the sort of thing that defenders will do if they're desperate," he said. Professor Clarke added that a move against the plant by Russia would underline its desperation. "Anyone trying to blow a reactor up would blow it up from the bottom, but if you explode something from the top, that almost certainly is to make it look as if it's incoming artillery round ," he said. Professor Clarke says that, if intelligence reports are correct, the devices could help Russia with a false flag operation. Much has been made of the intelligence, with nuclear experts doubtful the devices could cause a major catastrophe because of their size and placement. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that reactors three and four have devices on the roofs that "look like explosives". Mr Zelenskyy will know that patience might prove a virtue, and he will not want to commit the bulk of his offensive capability until the time is right.īut, this is the opening salvo and there is definitely more to come.Įxplosives allegedly placed on the roofs of reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant could be there to feign Ukrainian shelling, Sky's defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke has said. It is also worth noting that this counteroffensive is a critical moment for Ukraine Western support is not unlimited, and there are limited supplies of high-tech weapons available. So, progress will not be rapid - as the chairman of the US joint chiefs General Mark Milley advised, this will be slow and it will be bloody. ![]() This phase will also involve deception to get Russia to commit its reserve forces to shore up one area of the frontline, leaving Ukraine to exploit progress in another.įurthermore, Yevgeny Prigozhin's ill-fated coup attempt might well have an impact on Russia's force dispositions as it is very likely that Vladimir Putin will want to strengthen domestic security, which again might erode the resilience of deployed forces in Ukraine. The next phase would have been probing - testing out the Russian defensive crust to identify weaknesses to exploit. The first phase of the counteroffensive would have been shaping – targeting the Russian logistic supply lines, oil storage and lines of communication (rail). However, the widespread press coverage of Mr Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts means that Russia has had time to prepare defences against any major Ukrainian offensive they have established hundreds of kilometres of layered defences, including anti-tank ditches, so-called dragon's teeth and mines.įorces on the offensive generally suffer three times the casualties of those on the defence, and Ukraine will need to be very careful not to be drawn into an attritional battle that would favour their opponents. President Zelenskyy has been amazingly effective at securing advanced weaponry from the West to support the highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, but that has created an "air of expectation" in the West of a swift and decisive victory for Ukraine. Initially, the West only provided "defensive" weapons - such as anti-tank missiles - to assist Ukraine, but over time has gradually gained confidence that Ukraine would not use their weapons on Russian soil and risk the conflict escalating and spreading. Instead, Ukraine was able to halt the illegal Russian invasion, and over the past year has pushed Russia back out of around 50% of the territory it once held.īut, Ukraine is heavily dependent on the West for weapons and ammunition. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Ukrainian military forces have proven incredibly resilient against what should - at least on paper - have been a superior Russian force.īetter equipped and with numerical advantage, Russia might have expected to sweep Ukrainian resistance away and subjugate the whole country in a matter of weeks. Our military analyst Sean Bell has this to say. ![]() ![]() Today's question comes from Howie, who asks: "The counteroffensive seems a little underwhelming so far - given some of the noises out of Ukraine about the difficulty of taking land back, have our expectations been too high and could we see little change this year? Or is there more to come?" We've been putting your questions on the Ukraine war to our senior correspondents and military experts. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |